Impacts of Climate Change on Catchment Flows ...

According to the Fourth Assessment Report – AR4 in 2007 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is a complex problem and becoming the leading challenge for humankind in the 21st century. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts on the social, economic activities and proposed solutions to respond to climate change is urgent and necessary. This study applied the GIS (Geographic Information System) technique and SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to simulate water flows due to the impact of climate change. The models were applied for several catchments in and around Dak Nong province. The results of catchment flows can be useful information for many purposes, such as: flood forecasting, predicting sediment loads and impact assessment of climate change on water resource and hydropower. In this study, the issues of hydropower safety and electricity generation capacity in Dak Nong up the year of 2020 are focused. The results of SWAT model show some certain changes in catchment flows due to climate change, for example, the maximum streamflow in the upper part of Serepok River in 2020 is higher than that in the period of 2005 to 2010 about 16.8%. The results also showed that the hydropower dams’ safety in Dak Nong province is secured given the climate change scenarios. In addition, given the changes in catchment flows due to climate change ，the hydroelectric ouput of Dak Nong in 2020 are only 7,063 million kWh/year, which is less than about 12% in comparison to the expected production.