Research on Response Characteristics of Grain ...

It is a significant social problem for nation and people to guarantee grain security. Climate change cause the grain output fluctuating by affecting the growth of crops, and the impact of climate change on grain output is the core of the effects of climate change on agricultural production. Taking Tai'an area as an example, the essay analyzes the response characteristics of climate change to grain output with the method of separation of climatic output. The results show that: The grain output sharply increased with 2.8% speeds in Tai'an area, especially in 90's; Climatic output changeing shows a sine function model with a change cycle of 4 to 7 years, and the 90's belongs to the increasing years of weather output, while others are opposite. Moreover, the fluctuation range of corn climatic output is the biggest; The climate sensitivity is different for different grain crops: Precipitation is the first climatic gene to restrain grain production; Wheat output is mainly affected by climate warming, while corn is mainly affected by precipitation. Climate combinations of different stages make the grain output complex. Climatic disasters are the main reasons for causing the wide fluctuations of grain output (Drought disaster of 1989 and 2002; Flood disaster of 1990).The response model of grain output to climate change can be descripted as the following: Y=115.011T+0.85p-16.468t-224143.465(Y”Grain output”, T”Year”, p” Precipitation”, t” Temperature”).